November 24, 2022

Five “Feel It In My Plums” picks – NFL BONUS Week 11 – Kelly In Vegas and Marco Piemonte play

Looking to get hot this week with these:

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 at New York Jets

Joe Flacco starts the JETS today. And in him, Miami couldn’t have asked for a more ideal QB to face. The Dolphins’ defense is blitz-mad at times, and Flacco isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson. (Which the Dolphins beat last week.) Don’t rely on the Jets’ defense to bail out the offense. He’s been smoked for at least 45 points in three of the last four games.

Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup after coming off the bench in last week’s win over Baltimore. The Dolphins also had three extra days to prepare for this one.

The Miami defense has also finally returned to form in recent weeks after injuries plagued high school, especially earlier in the year.

This line looked like it was going to drop from the key number three, so I gladly put down the -120 before that happened. Do I like to put points on the road? No, but it’s the Jets.

  • Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against the NY Jets.
  • The NY Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the East Division of the American Football Conference.


Washington coach Ron Rivera would be better able to capitalize on his knowledge of former student Cam Newton if he had Chase Young at his disposal. But Newton was spared, with Washington DE injured, and Rivera’s defense is ranked 27th anyway. The unity of the Panthers is almost the polar opposite. He ranks No.2 overall and, more importantly, second for the fewest goals allowed per possession. Newton could play a less important role for Carolina than RB Christian McCaffrey, who is back in shape after an injury layoff.

Without Washington DE Chase Young (knee) up front, it also makes things a little easier for the Panthers’ offensive line. Washington is coming off a big effort against Tampa Bay, but it feels like this team is counting the weeks until the end of this season.

  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against Carolina.
  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games.

DALLAS COWBOYS +2.5 to Kansas City Chiefs

This 2021 Chiefs squad is a fraud.

They dropped 41 points to the Raiders’ header last week after scoring 36 in their previous THREE games combined, and the market thinks that’s enough to say the Chiefs are now set.

That’s the only way to justify that line, as the Chiefs have to be seen as equal or better with the Cowboys as the home court advantage hasn’t been worth nearly three points this year.

But the Cowboys have been pretty good all year outside of the Denver game, and they’re a much bigger test of the Chiefs’ improved defense than anything they’ve seen in their last quality streak.

I don’t think this row has any business north of picking them up, so I’ll take the extra value points here.

  • Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games.
  • Kansas City is 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 games.
  • Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 at Buffalo Bills

Fun fact –

Main revenue gaps in the NFL:
1. Invoices +14
2. Foals +11

Most points about take out in the NFL:
1. Foals 77
2. Bills 74

Frank Reich returns home to Buffalo!

The Colts arrive after winning five of seven losses, with the two losses coming in overtime. But, Indy was actually dominated by Jacksonville last Sunday. It is therefore a slight concern. Much like Buffalo defends the race well and ranks second in terms of pressure rating.

But I think the Colts’ physical style of play can keep this one close to the road. The Colts are well trained and know Buffalo well. The Bills beat Indy 27-24 as a seven-point home favorites in last season’s playoffs, despite a 472-397 victory.

Take the points.

  • Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
  • Indianapolis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against Buffalo.
  • Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against an American Football Conference opponent.
  • Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the East Division of the American Football Conference.
  • Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the South Division of the American Football Conference.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -0.5 at Seattle Seahawks

Well I’ll be honest with you guys, I thought Kyler Murray was starting today when I placed this bet last night.

And even with this news, I remain positive and persuaded myself to double down with another unit by getting 3.

The Seahawks have been an ATS corner flip this season (5-4). Arizona substitute Colt McCoy has his own injury issues. But for Seattle, the best RB Chris Carson is over for the season. The Seahawks were ruled out last Sunday in Russell Wilson’s hasty return from finger surgery.

The Seahawks have lost twice in overtime and another game by a field goal, which puts them at 3-6. Their season is at stake in this game.

That said, even without Murray and Hopkins, this one shouldn’t come close to the worst team in NFC West. This Cardinals team is the real deal and is on a collision course to meet Dallas in the playoffs, possibly the NFC Championship.

  • Arizona are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • Arizona are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Arizona are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Seattle.
  • Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games against Arizona.

Kelly In Vegas’s Picks –

The choices of Marco Piemonte –


PS If anyone sees anything good for the NFL roundups tomorrow send it to me